“What Can Presently Be Stated About Venezuela”

Ricardo F. Morín
CGI 2026

An officially announced political process is scheduled to begin on August 1, 2026, while authorities in Washington are reportedly considering a broader mechanism through which the United States might assist Venezuela’s material reconstruction.   The former has been publicly confirmed by the parties and by the United States Department of State.   The latter remains under consideration as a longer-term technical and financial framework and has not yet become official United States policy, notwithstanding the humanitarian assistance already authorized by the United States in response to the recent earthquakes affecting portions of Venezuela.

The announced political process follows contacts between Jorge Rodríguez, who presides over the legislative body presently exercising parliamentary functions in Caracas, and Dinorah Figuera, who presides over the body constituted by deputies elected in 2015.   The stated agenda includes institutional reconstruction, the strengthening of the electoral system, guarantees for political participation and the recovery of civic freedoms.   The United States has formally welcomed that agenda as a Venezuelan initiative directed toward a democratic transition.

The participation of the deputies elected in 2015 must nevertheless be understood within its constitutional limits.   Their presence identifies them as political interlocutors possessing an objectively ascertainable representative antecedent.   Claims have been advanced that their constitutional standing continued beyond the expiration of their elected term.   Those claims, however, do not themselves demonstrate the continuing representative mandate required by the Constitution.   Their participation therefore cannot, by itself, resolve the constitutional status of the body in whose name they act.

The negotiations simultaneously expose a second constitutional question.   If the displacement of the National Assembly elected in 2015 occurred without constitutional foundation, the title of the legislative body that replaced it necessarily becomes subject to the same inquiry.   A successor institution cannot derive constitutional validity from the unconstitutional displacement of its predecessor.   Its title must therefore be demonstrated independently rather than presumed from its continued exercise of legislative authority.

The consequence is that the negotiations bring together two legislative bodies whose constitutional situations remain unresolved for different reasons.   One asserts the continuation of a representative status requiring demonstration.   The other continues to exercise legislative authority under a title that likewise requires demonstration.   Neither circumstance is resolved by the passage of time, by the effective exercise of institutional power or by participation in a political agreement.   The burden of demonstration therefore applies equally to both.

The presidential election of July 28, 2024 occupies a different constitutional position.   It constitutes the most recent direct act through which the Venezuelan Nation attributed the Presidency of the Republic.   The voting records examined by independent observers demonstrate that Edmundo González Urrutia obtained the majority of the votes, while the National Electoral Council did not publish the disaggregated results necessary to substantiate its contrary announcement.   The constitutional period corresponding to that election remains in effect.

The announced negotiations may therefore contribute to constitutional restoration by facilitating the recovery of electoral guarantees, civic freedoms and the institutional conditions indispensable to the functioning of the Republic.   They cannot themselves constitute a new source of public authority or cure, by agreement alone, unresolved defects in title.   Their proper constitutional function, should they attain their declared objectives, would be to facilitate the effectiveness of the Nation’s most recent electoral act rather than substitute another title in its place.

Separately, reports indicate that authorities in Washington have examined a possible technical and financial framework through which the United States might contribute to Venezuela’s long-term reconstruction.   The proposal contemplates technical personnel, engineers and financial resources dedicated to rebuilding infrastructure and essential public services beyond the humanitarian relief already authorized following the recent earthquakes.   No public announcement, executive order, enacted appropriation or bilateral agreement has yet established that broader reconstruction framework as official policy.

Foreign technical assistance would be compatible with Venezuelan sovereignty only insofar as it remained subordinate to constitutionally attributable Venezuelan authority.   It could assist in rebuilding infrastructure, administering resources allocated for that purpose and restoring the operational capacity of public administration.   It could not independently determine the source of Venezuelan public authority or replace the attribution already expressed by the Nation through the presidential election of 2024.

The developments presently unfolding increasingly intersect with one another.   Political negotiations, diplomatic recognition, institutional accommodations, sanctions policy and proposals for material reconstruction no longer operate independently.   Each may appear justifiable when considered in isolation, particularly in light of Venezuela’s prolonged institutional deterioration and the humanitarian consequences recently aggravated by natural disaster.   Considered together, however, they may progressively shape a political settlement before the source of public authority has itself been determined.   In that event, the unresolved defect would risk becoming incorporated into the very institutions intended to restore the Republic.

The constitutional question therefore remains antecedent to every political arrangement that may emerge from these concurrent developments.   Neither political agreement, institutional continuity, the effective exercise of power, foreign assistance nor diplomatic recognition can supply the title that only the Nation itself is competent to attribute.   Urgency cannot eliminate uncertainty, nor can constitutional method guarantee the course of events.   It does, however, furnish the only criterion capable of distinguishing constitutional restoration from the consolidation of a new distribution of public authority.   The seriousness demanded by that inquiry cannot be presumed from negotiations principally designed to achieve political accommodation, immediate stability or material reconstruction.   It requires the prior and public demonstration of constitutional title.   Any arrangement proceeding without resolving that antecedent question would not overcome Venezuela’s constitutional crisis but instead transmit it into the future under a different institutional form.

Bala Cynwyd, Pennsylvania

July 18, 2026


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